THE EARLY IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON THE AVIATION INDUSTRY

Abstract

The goal of the paper is to assess early economics impact of Covid-19 on the aviation industry as it is one of the hardest hit industries. Covid-19 has an unprecedented impact on the international passenger seat capacity and gross passenger operating revenues of airlines. In the first part, we look at the impact of the pandemic on the economy as a whole and subsequently look at the economic cost of airlines. Two main elements are driving this negative trend – travel restrictions and overall economic development. We are currently experiencing the tightest international travel restrictions in the modern era of flight transportation with the economies worldwide experiencing a greater decline in GDP than during the last 3 recessions. In the second part, we look at two out of many possible path scenarios which are likely to drive the trend: V-shaped path and U-shaped path. All pandemic outbreaks before followed V-shaped scenario but Covid-19 has paralysed the society for longer with stricter governmental measures and so U-shaped scenario has to be taken into account as the most likely outcome for the aviation industry during this pandemic.